Key Takeaways
- The Maersk ME2 Suez route, the India–Europe loop, is one of four Gemini services Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved onto Suez in a 14 September 2026 advisory.
- ME2’s first westbound sailing under the new routing left Colombo on 24 September. Its first eastbound Suez sailing leaves Port Tangier on 31 October.
- The 27 October sailing in some reports belongs to AE12, an Asia–Mediterranean service, not to ME2.
- The Houthis say only Saudi ships are targets, yet an Egyptian-owned vessel was hit on 11 August, and insurers quote Saudi-linked ships far higher rates.
Maersk has sent its India–Europe service back through Bab el-Mandeb while the Houthis and Yemen’s government fight over the coast beside it. The Maersk ME2 Suez route took effect on 24 September, when the Cornelia Maersk left Colombo on the first westbound sailing, and its first eastbound crossing leaves Port Tangier on 31 October. Maersk’s own advisory makes the whole arrangement conditional on the absence of escalation.
That condition is already under strain. Since the Houthis announced a blockade on Saudi shipping in July, an Egyptian-owned cargo ship has been hit in the strait, a Saudi-owned tanker has been reported struck off Yanbu, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) received a report of explosions near a tanker south of Al-Mukha (Mocha) in early October.
The ME2 Suez route rests on a distinction the Houthis draw themselves: Saudi ships on one side, everyone else on the other.
How the Maersk ME2 Suez Route Was Rewritten on 14 September
On 14 September, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd told customers that four Gemini Cooperation services (AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2) would use the trans-Suez route instead of sailing around the Cape of Good Hope. They join AE15 and AE19, which already transited Suez. The ME2 Suez route serves the India–Europe trade, and Hapag-Lloyd runs the same loop as IEX. Its rotation now runs Ennore, Colombo, Suez Canal, Algeciras, Rotterdam, London, Hamburg and Port Tangier, then back through Suez to Colombo, according to Maersk’s 14 September advisory.
The first westbound ME2 sailing under the new routing was the Cornelia Maersk, voyage 638W, which left Colombo on 24 September. The same vessel is named for the first eastbound Suez sailing, voyage 643E, departing Port Tangier on 31 October. Those two sailings frame the Maersk ME2 Suez route for now.
The 27 October date that appears in some reports belongs to a different service. Maersk left the first AE12 sailing to a later notice, and trade reports have since named the Umm Qarn, leaving Tanjung Pelepas on 27 October on voyage 642W.
| Service | Trade | First westbound Suez sailing | First eastbound Suez sailing |
|---|---|---|---|
| AE11 | Asia–Mediterranean | Antonia Maersk 635W, Tanjung Pelepas, 19 September | Maersk Halifax 637E, Vado Ligure, 28 September |
| AE5 | Asia–North Europe | Marchen Maersk 635W, Tanjung Pelepas, 21 September | Maastricht Maersk 637E, Algeciras, 22 September |
| ME2 | India–Europe | Cornelia Maersk 638W, Colombo, 24 September | Cornelia Maersk 643E, Port Tangier, 31 October |
| AE12 | Asia–Mediterranean | Umm Qarn 642W, Tanjung Pelepas, 27 October (reported) | Umm Qarn 648E, Algeciras, 5 December (reported) |
Why Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Went Back While the Coast Was Contested
The carriers’ stated reason is speed. Maersk calls the Suez and Red Sea route the fastest and most efficient way to serve Asia–Europe trade, and Hapag-Lloyd has said its decision followed a fresh assessment of Red Sea security. The timing is the unusual part. The announcement came days after reports that the Houthis had taken Mocha and Perim Island and completed their push to Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
The saving is real. Xeneta’s eeSea data put the Suez advantage on the AE12 loop at two weeks, cutting the voyage from 98 days to 84. Suez Canal Authority figures reported in September show container net tonnage at 72.1 million tons for the first eight months of 2026, up 54.2 percent on the same period of 2025.
Maersk has been here before. On 30 December 2023 the Maersk Hangzhou came under attack in the southern Red Sea, and the company paused its Red Sea sailings within days. It announced a return on its MECL service on 15 January 2026, paused again in March after the war on Iran began, and restarted MECL’s Suez transits in July.
TES assessment: staged, service-by-service returns let a carrier withdraw one loop without unwinding the whole network. The Maersk ME2 Suez route is now one of six Gemini services on Suez, and the Cape of Good Hope route that carriers are leaving remains the fallback.
What the Houthis Say About Non-Saudi Ships, and What Insurers Price In
The Houthis’ declared policy is narrow. They announced a blockade on Saudi shipping in July, and a Houthi leader told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on 11 September that other vessels would be allowed safe passage and that no transit fees were planned. On 1 August the Houthi-run coordination centre that oversees vessel movement through the strait told shipping companies to make no payments to unauthorised parties.
How an Egyptian-Owned Ship Became a Target
On 11 August the cargo ship Tihamah was hit by ballistic missiles in the strait. Yemen’s transport ministry said four crew members, three Pakistani and one Indonesian, were killed, and the coastguard said a second strike hit the rescue operation. The ship was Egyptian-owned. Houthi-run Saba said the group had attacked a Saudi vessel carrying military equipment, according to Al Jazeera’s account, which described the deaths as the first shipping fatalities linked to the Houthis since the war on Iran began on 28 February.
The stated test, then, was cargo rather than flag. A ship’s owner and registry do not settle whether it falls inside the blockade. Saudi shipping company Bahri separately confirmed an incident involving its tanker Amzan in the Red Sea on 24 August, with all crew safe.
How Insurers Price the Houthi Line
Underwriters have turned the distinction into numbers. Reuters reported in August that indicative Red Sea war-risk premiums rose to about 0.75 percent of vessel value after the blockade announcement, from about 0.3 percent. Quotes for southern Red Sea voyages passed 1 percent, and some Saudi-linked ships were quoted as much as 3 percent near Jizan, Al Shuqaiq and the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Those figures date from late August, and quotes move quickly.
Maersk’s 8 October operational update adds a caution. It says a number of insurers have reduced or withdrawn cover for shipments into the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf regions, particularly cover on vessels.
The notice concerns cargo bound for the region, not transits, and its main subject is the Gulf. There, Maersk charges USD 1,000 per container on Strait of Hormuz transits to cover insurance and crew-risk costs. The ME2 advisory announces no comparable charge.
TES assessment: the carriers are treating Hormuz as a priced risk and the Red Sea as a conditional one, a choice that holds only while the Houthis keep to their Saudi-only line. The group’s background and aims are set out in TES’s earlier analysis of the Houthi Red Sea escalation.
What the Maersk ME2 Suez Route Means for Cargo From Ennore
For Indian shippers, the ME2 Suez route starts at Ennore, on the Chennai coast, and reaches Rotterdam, London and Hamburg through Suez instead of the Cape. Maersk promises more efficient transit times but has published no ME2-specific figure. Indian exports to Europe have long leaned on this corridor: the Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), a New Delhi think tank, estimated in early 2024 that about 80 percent of them use the Red Sea.
Capacity is the other variable. Every loop that returns to Suez frees ships that were spending extra weeks around Africa. On the Far East–Mediterranean lane, trade press reported in late September that CMA CGM had set new freight-all-kinds rates of USD 4,600 per 40-foot container to the west Mediterranean from 19 October, described as the first carrier move to prop up rates.
What the ME2 Suez Route Leaves Unanswered
Two questions remain open for Indian exporters. Maersk has not said how many days the ME2 Suez route saves, or what it means for rates on the India–Europe lane. And the advisory ties every change to Red Sea stability without defining the trigger or the notice period.
Shippers booking on ME2 are therefore buying a schedule with a condition attached. The 31 October eastbound sailing will show how the carriers read that condition in practice.
What Would Send ME2 Back Around the Cape
Maersk has named its own trigger: a loss of stability in the Red Sea or an escalation of regional conflicts. TES sees three tripwires that would meet that test: a strike on a merchant ship with no Saudi link, a widening of the Houthi blockade beyond Saudi vessels, and a US decision to join the Saudi-led campaign, on which President Donald Trump said on 10 October that a decision would come “very quickly”.
The third is the least certain and the most consequential. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said on 8 October that the group would keep attacking Saudi targets and Saudi-backed forces, and he warned Riyadh to prepare for a long conflict. He did not extend that threat to other shipping. The scale of the fighting is covered in TES’s report on the Riyadh airport attack.
The Hangzhou episode shows how fast a return can end: one attack on 30 December 2023 reversed a cautious restart within days. This is a future possibility, not a forecast.
What to Watch Between Now and 31 October
Four things will show whether the ME2 Suez route holds: the Umm Qarn’s 27 October departure, the Cornelia Maersk’s 31 October sailing from Port Tangier, any UKMTO incident report in the strait, and the next Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd notice on Gemini services. The wider setting is covered in TES’s comparison of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz and the Iran war and Hormuz crisis hub.
Which Maersk services now use the Suez route?
AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2, announced on 14 September, join AE15 and AE19, which already used Suez.
When does the Maersk ME2 Suez route’s first eastbound sailing leave?
The Cornelia Maersk, voyage 643E, is scheduled to leave Port Tangier on 31 October.
Is the 27 October sailing part of ME2?
No. It is the first AE12 sailing, the Umm Qarn on voyage 642W from Tanjung Pelepas, according to trade reports.
Will Maersk change the plan if the Houthis escalate?
Maersk says any alteration to Gemini services depends on Red Sea stability and the absence of escalation in regional conflicts.
Are the Houthis attacking all ships in the strait?
Their stated policy targets Saudi vessels only. An Egyptian-owned ship was hit on 11 August, and the group said it carried Saudi military equipment.
The Takeaway: Maersk’s Timetable Depends on How the Houthis Define “Saudi”
The timetable rests on a line the Houthis draw themselves. Insurers already price that line, and the Tihamah showed it can be redrawn by cargo as well as by flag.
The first full test of the Maersk ME2 Suez route is not a statement or a headline. It is a ship leaving Port Tangier on 31 October for Colombo. Carriers learned in December 2023 that a strait’s mood shows in its first hit. They have chosen to sail anyway.
Source note: Sailing dates and rotations are from Maersk’s 14 September 2026 service advisory; the AE12 dates are from trade reports. Houthi positions are as stated by Houthi officials and Houthi-run bodies. War-risk figures are a late-August snapshot reported by Reuters. Items marked as TES assessments are analysis, not fact.
